Random Observation/Comment #649: Time to accelerate my learning of 30 Survival Skills…
Why this List?
The impact of any wide-spreading disease like the coronavirus often takes a few months to settle. Different factors recently contributed from either media sensationalism or fake news has led to a fairly major panic within the global economy and stock market. We were all expecting some type of recession to occur since the trade war + Brexit + a whole list of 30 global worries.
Cryptocurrencies might be a safe haven since it’s less connected to the financial markets, but honestly, everything is connected so I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket. If you’re looking for cryptocurrency exposure, there’s a list of 30 for that too.
Here are some ideas of how lives of individuals and businesses can be impacted directly and indirectly. These are in no particular order, but you can trace my thoughts and assumptions.
- Consumers will be reluctant to travel internationally –> Bad for airport related businesses – Airlines
- Consumers will be reluctant to take international vacations –> Bad for tourism industry
- White-collar labor may be working more from home –> Good for work-from-home companies like Zoom and Slack.
- Consumers will be less likely to join large congregations / gatherings –> Bad for retail
- Consumers will be less likely to eat at restaurants –> Good for restaurant delivery services
- Consumers will be more wary of food origins and maybe even more vegetarian-based meals –> Bad for meat products; Good for fake meat products depending on transparency of process
- Fewer consumers will go to malls and shop in-person –> Good for online shopping
- Fewer consumers will attend sporting events or concerts –> Bad for businesses related to arenas; Good for Virtual Reality (VR) participation?
- Fewer consumers will go to the gym –> Good for workout from home companies like Peleton
- Consumers may be less likely to use public transportation –> Bad for government funding of public transportation
- Consumers more likely to attend outdoor activities –> Good for hiking
- Businesses may ban travel to meetings –> Good for teleconferencing
- Businesses may reduce budget for flights (specifically first class tickets) –> Very bad for airlines
- Businesses may cancel conferences –> Bad for marketing events and jobs related to conference coordination; Bad for start-ups looking to raise money and leverage events for gaining business contacts
- Businesses that create goods that have physical parts made from China will have a slippage in manufacturing dates –> Bad for companies that rely on parts made in China
- Businesses that interact with China at all –> Bad compounded from companies already impacted by Trade war
- Businesses may reallocate their budgets and reduce R&D –> Bad for Innovation and Emerging tech groups
- Stocks may plummet +20% –> Bad for individual retirement funds; Bad for investments; Maybe good for lower-middle class to time the market and reinvest post market correction
- Robo investment platforms may have no good choices to make –> Bad for investors
- Businesses may reduce pay of bonuses which reduces investments into the market as savings –> Maybe Bad for market in a cyclical way
- VCs may reduce their allocations –> Bad for start-ups that are looking to raise money on their new ideas
- Political candidates may write policies that have second or third order effects –> Maybe Good for Democratic candidates that push broader healthcare measures
- Governments likely to put more funding into healthcare and pharmaceutical companies –> Good for pharma (if they figure out how to distribute it)
- Consumers may consume more alcohol and marijuana –> Standard recession impact is Good for alcohol, tobacco, and firearms
- Consumers may buy more products that have a longer shelf life –> Good for canned goods industry
- Consumers likely to buy more cleaning products –> Stores fined for price gauging, but likely higher demand for making cleaning products are good for Johnson&Johnson like companies
- Consumers more likely to want to learn about survival lessons –> Good for businesses teaching survival techniques
- Consumers probably want to buy better home chairs since they’re working from home more –> Good for furniture stores
- Consumers watching more TV at home –> Good for media streaming services like Netflix
- Alternative investments and money safe havens may saturate –> This is good for Bitcoin.
~See Lemons Bunker Up