Random Observation/Comment #653: At least there’s a good reason to drink “the good stuff.”
Why this list?
I started worrying about coronavirus in the last week of Feb 2020 (see Coronavirus Precautions and Impacts). The paranoia has paid off and the family is safe slightly farther away from NYC. We have the essentials and we’re actively social distancing. I’ve gone into some level of acceptance that there is, and will be, a new normal from an economic full-stop. This is what keeps me up at night:
- How bad will it get within the US? – We didn’t have testing nor the proper policies to act quickly. Are we looking at worse than Italy? Will our hospitals reach over-capacity in the coming days?
- Will NYC be the biggest impacted? – Will we be quarantined (blocked bridges and tunnels)? Will there be riots and looting?
- Will NYC restaurant culture return? Will the great chefs not have enough capital to reopen?
- Will the US still be a world superpower if China has controlled the spread and recovers quickly? Does this highlight the advantages of totalitarian control on citizen surveillance and monitoring?
- Will the US stock market recover? Are we looking at a 10 year+ recession? What is the bottom? Where is the bottom?
- How much money will we inject into repo market by the end of this? What’s the impact to the financial stability of the dollar? How does this impact VCs/PEs/new companies?
- Is there going to be some devaluation of the US dollar based on US Treasury prices?
- Will Cryptocurrencies be a safe haven asset? Will financial institutions consider diversification in owning un-tethered assets?
- Will our US economy be less dependent on supply chain coming from China?
- Where will the bailouts be focused? – Airlines? Theaters? Hotels? Restaurants? Hospitals? Retail Shops? Real Estate? Insurance?
- Will this lead to Universal Healthcare? What new conditions will form after recovery that puts a strain on our long term health?
- Will this lead to Universal Basic Income? Will most people spend their UBI check on paying bills, rent, groceries, or …?
- Will city-based crowded living still be preferred by major white collar institutions and upper middle class?
- What will the new normal look like for working? – Is working from home more effective? What was the loss in productivity or impact on delivered products?
- Will health and medical R&D get more government funding?
- Can a global crisis like this one end wars?
- Will there be a reduction in government spending towards military? Decrease in demand for aircraft parts and weapons?
- Will the lower-middle class be able to afford houses again (like in the 90s)? Does this make Manhattan 2-bedrooms more affordable?
- Does this wipe out small mom and pop shop businesses?
- Do we even have a 401k or pension plan worth anything anymore?
- Are we helping with reducing emissions and hopefully reversing some levels of climate change?
- What will this new generation that’s lived through this really care about? Those from the great depression never wastes good. Will we always wash our hands?
- Will we all learn to live more simply?
- Will the travel industry recover? – Travel abroad programs?
- Is this educational gap semester good or bad for students? Will they miss a year of school and be behind?
- Will live streaming be more commonplace for artists, performers, comedians, musicians, etc?
- What documentaries will be written about this time and what will be revealed? Were all the numbers faked? Deep fake of leaders?
- Have we reached peak podcasts?
- What will I tell people I did during this time of crisis? – Who did I help? How was I helped?
- What side projects did I say I’d work on “only if I had time” that I actually was just too lazy to do?
~See Lemons Cherish Family