Random Observation/Comment #733: We’ve still got a lot of innovation happening that offsets some of my cynical predictions.
Why this list?
What is there to look forward to in the next few years? I’m nervous about the markets by Feb 2022, but still a bull across the board on interesting patterns and developments in communities.
- Cryptocurrency – This new form of money is here to stay. Not all cryptocurrencies are made the same (just like not all websites have the same quality and relevance). We’ll have a huge shakeout, but coming out of this innovation will be a lot of great ideas that will be too early for the technology.
- Fintech / TechFin / DeFi innovation – We are truly in a time of disruption to every single market. The value transfer networks created are streamlining a lot of traditional software players that have made money off of inefficiencies. We’re seeing a lot of composable patterns and new financial market infrastructure getting launched daily.
- Virtual Reality / Augmented Reality – The Metaverse is real and super engaging. I think I’m an early converter to use my Oculus Quest 2 at least once a day for some table tennis or watching immersive videos. With improved external cameras, it’s very easy to see a full space get transformed like the holodeck. It’s clear to me that travel to space or across planets is replaced by transportation of reality to your local view.
- Games – When millennials start retiring, we’ll start to see some hardcore gaming rigs at senior centers. Seriously though – console games are incredibly creative at telling stories.
- Simulations – If you watch any two-minute paper youtube videos, you’ll see the latest papers around simulations are just wild. It’s not just rendering, but full interactions between these entities showing so much extrapolation and promise to creating a full world.
- Quantum computing – This blows my mind. Applying AI to solve for some of these problems have really accelerated these advancements. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is commercialized into a product before military use cases.
- Natural Language Processing / AI personalities – NLP is essentially solved after collecting all this human data through Siri, Amazon, and Google. We’ve officially passed the Turing Test because the AI is pretty much incredible. I watched this video of an interview with GPT-3 and it was crazy. GPT-3 is the Internet set of data categorized and can be asked questions around predicting when Covid would end or other factors.
- Remote working – 100% believe that there will be some type of hybrid working setup, but I still think people will families will choose remote first while younger workers in their 20s will want a place to meet people and get face-time for advancement opportunities.
- Education platforms – Universities act as high value brands by turning down students for lower % acceptance rates. They’re basically gaming the ranking system and must be disrupted to give kids the opportunities they deserve. Kudos to Forbes Top college ranking for taking into account public scholarships.
- Autonomous EV trucks – I think EV truck fleets will be the only way to lower margin costs for deliveries and reduce global carbon footprint.
- Genomics / mRNA – Pharma and biotech has always been streaky bets. I’m betting on some M&A in the future here, but CRSPR and other advancements will see cures for certain cancers and transplants in the near future.
- Cybersecurity – While this is one of the hardest areas to be leading the charge, it will have some of the most investment in the long term. Everyone wants to buy into a cybersecurity ETF.
- Space exploration – While the Webber telescope was way over budget and delayed by 10+ years, it’s still pretty crazy the amount of engineering that went behind it. I’m bullish on space travel because it keeps us all dreaming as we look up.
- Health tech disruption / Health IOT devices – A bit scary how much data is being collected. We’re really seeing some innovation in privacy control of data and closer connectivity across legacy healthcare systems.
- Deep fake technology – While this is super scary, the work on this is incredibly innovative and worth mentioning. The social impact will be extreme though. I am starting to not trust anything I watch/see.
- Self sovereign identity and data control – NFTs show how users can have portable verifiable ownership of unique assets. This was supposed to be the future of W3C communication using verifiable credentials and DIDs. I think it would scale better leveraging DID tech, but I’ll take the incremental “permission token” view of NFTs to move towards sharing proofs and claims.
- Battery tech and clean energy – Batteries are really the key to the future. Larger capacity and more efficient combinations will power the robots of tomorrow. Pretty sure GPT-3 will 3D print some for its army.
- Minimalist culture – It’s a weird thing to be bullish about, but I’m hoping the world consumes less and lives more simply.
- Individual contributors shining – I see a temporary trend towards higher quality individual contributors in the short term. I think it’s just a part of a generational wave or maybe one that likes to work jobs that have clear ends. There’s value in management though. These flat organizations will constantly evolve.
- Focus on creativity – I think the newer generation believes in the side hustle culture and creativity. Maybe this is just a “dream job” that people are too afraid to pursue?
- Podcasts / Conversational engagement – I consume so much content through my bone conducting headphones. It’s whispering in my ear like that movie “Her.” It’s such a lovely way to give my eyes a rest.
- Experiences – Pay more attention to time than things.
- Digital signatures / LegalTech advancements – Most of the fintech innovation is just digitization of legacy processes. There’s so much advancement in the “agreement” that the legal piece really needs to catch up.
- Home improvement – Mostly because we’re spending so much more time at home. Hopefully people have already upgraded their desk chairs and reading lights.
- Robotic automation – Automation is a good thing. More skilled and creative jobs will spawn from this high tech world and people just need to adapt.
- Hard assets (e.g. gold and bitcoin) – Boomer talk here, but hard assets will at least be some level of safe havens in the impending doom.
- Microbreweries – I’m probably biased because I love IPAs and live in Colorado, but I see a lot of innovation and creativity that always entertains my taste buds.
- Open source projects – There’s so much that depends on the openness and extendibility of code. You can try to build without these libraries, but you’ll just be reinventing the wheel.
- Boring company / Infrastructure – Traffic congestion is real and anyone making a 2 hr commute during rush hour into a 30 minute one will be able to charge a very high margin. I don’t know what happens when there’s a pothole, but it’s still pretty cool.
- DAOs – Community-based tokens are incredibly powerful for bottom-up innovation and self-organizing culture.
~See Lemons Be an Investor Bull